STC Finance - Analytics and Signals

2022-05-16 09:38:35 Открыть/Комментировать

2022-05-09 07:56:14 BTC/USD WEEKLY REVIEW 09.05-13.05.2022
At the time of the publication of the review, this tool is 33776.00.
Market the day before
Bitcoin is giving a bearish signal.
BTC/USD hit $36,000 overnight, losing 12% in just 72 hours.
Recall that on Friday, the bitcoin rate dropped sharply to $37,000 and lasted no lower than $36,000 during Saturday. Tonight, less than $36,000 was already given for one bitcoin, and in the morning the rate sank even lower.
We expect
To sell Bitcoin, you need to break through the body of a monthly candle of $ 35,000.
If the market closes lower, then we forget about buying.
The current news is leading Bitcoin to fall much earlier.
By autumn, the market will fall to 19 thousand, and maybe even to 10 thousand dollars.
Still close to its lowest levels since late February, the pair has nonetheless avoided repeating 2022 lows at the time of writing despite low volume market conditions over the weekend.
Thesis:
- Bitcoin fell by 12%;
- To sell Bitcoin, you need to break $35,000 with the body of a monthly candle;
- If the market closes lower, then we forget about buying.
Economic calendar
In his latest Twitter update on May 6, popular trader Anbessa highlighted the planned support level for buying bitcoin in what he called the “fake” zone starting at just under $33,000.
Following the price of one token, of course, the market capitalization of bitcoin is also declining - now it is slightly below the $660 billion mark. In annual terms, the asset price has already fallen by 25%. In addition to bitcoin, most other cryptocurrencies are now in the “red” zone.
The decrease in the cost of cryptocurrency is associated with the general economic and political instability in the world, the departure of a number of cryptocurrency exchanges from Russia.
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2022-05-09 07:55:53 BTC/USD ОБЗОР
На рынке сейчас этот инструмент составляет 35700.00.
Биткоин дает сигнал на понижение.
Курс BTC/USD достиг отметки в 36 000 долларов за ночь, потеряв 12% всего за 72 часа.
Напомним, в пятницу курс биткойна резко опустился до 37 000 долларов и продержался не ниже 36 000 в течение субботы. Сегодня ночью за один биткойн давали уже меньше 36 000 долларов, а утром курс просел ещё ниже. За неделю курс упал на 10%, а рыночная капитализация составила 654 млрд долларов.
Для продажи Биткоина нужно пробить телом месячной свечи 35000 долларов.
Если рынок закрывается ниже, то о покупках забываем.
Нынешние новости ведут к тому, чтобы Биткоин упал намного раньше.
К осени рынок упадет к 19 тысячам, а может даже к 10 тысячам долларов. Открыть/Комментировать

2022-05-09 07:55:29 OIL BRENT WEEKLY REVIEW 09.05-13.05.2022
On the market at the time of the publication of the review, this instrument is 113.30.
Market the day before
On the daily time frame, when going down, there was a breakout of the trend, then a rollback, then it went down again and rolled back again. As soon as the market went down for the third time, it failed to reach support, all because of the buyers who did not let oil fall.
We expect
So far, everything is moving towards the fact that with the sixth package of sanctions, everything is banned in general, an embargo is imposed on Russian oil in all its manifestations.
But, the Embargo does not mean that oil will not be sold.
On May 6, the German magazine Spiegel noted that Russia, in the event of a gradual ban on oil imports, is able to quickly find a new market. Since Russian oil is mainly transported by tankers, the transition to the supply of raw materials to new customers will not take long. In addition, the very fact of an embargo could increase the price of resources, as it would create a “sense of shortage” of oil on the world market.
The demand for oil will rise because there is not much of it.
If the market goes up and renews the high at 114.80, then the downtrend will drag on and the market will test the next high at 123.70.
Oil prices continue to rise on Friday on continued fears that the market will face a shortage of supply.

Thesis
- Breaking through the trend;
- rollback;
- The market went down.
Economic calendar
The OPEC+ countries voted the day before to maintain the plan to increase the quota for oil production in June by 432,000 barrels per day. However, despite the systematic increase in quotas since August 2021, the OPEC+ countries cannot reach the permitted level of oil production. According to the results of March, they lag behind in production by 1.45 million bpd.
The cost of July futures for Brent oil on the London ICE Futures exchange by 8:15 Moscow time on Friday is $111.3 per barrel, which is $0.4 (0.36%) higher than the closing price of the previous session. As a result of trading on Thursday, these contracts rose by $0.76 (0.7%) to $110.9 per barrel.
Saudi Arabia cuts oil prices for the first time since Brent jumped above $100 a barrel after the start of the Russian "military special operation" in Ukraine. The rise in prices in general comes against the backdrop of an uncertain situation around Russian supplies and a drop in exports from Russia, as the EU has taken a course towards abandoning Russian energy. In addition, the situation is affected by lockdowns in China, with the help of which the country is fighting new outbreaks of COVID-19. Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel consumption fell 20% last month from a year earlier, Bloomberg reported.
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2022-05-09 07:55:07 Фьючерс на нефть Brent – ОБЗОР
На рынке сейчас этот инструмент составляет 113.30.
На дневном тайм-фрейме при походе вниз было пробитие тренда, затем откат, потом опять пошла вниз и снова откат. Как только рынок пошел вниз в третий раз, он не смог достигнуть поддержки, все из-за покупателей, которые не дали нефти упасть вниз.
Пока что все идет к тому, что с шестым пакетом санкций запрещают вообще всё, вводят эмбарго на российскую нефть во всех ее проявлениях.
Но, Эмбарго - это еще не говорит о том, что нефть продаваться не будет.
Спрос на нефть будет расти, потому что ее немного.
Если рынок пойдет на повышение и обновит максимум на отметке 114.80, то поход на понижение затянется и рынок будет тестировать следующий максимум на отметке 123.70.
Цены на нефть продолжают расти в пятницу на сохраняющихся опасениях, что рынок столкнется с нехваткой предложения. Открыть/Комментировать

2022-05-09 07:54:35 ХAU/USD WEEKLY REVIEW 09.05-13.05.2022
At the time of publication of the review, the XAU/USD currency pair is 1885.00.
Market the day before
Gold jumped above $1,900 on Thursday but reversed sharply in the afternoon to close deep in negative territory. The XAU/USD pair remains relatively calm today, hovering near $1,870 in the morning.

We expect
On the monthly time frame, downside prospects are still preserved. There is no signal for an increase.
After the first take was worked out, the market began to correct, having risen, it rolled back and is trying to go up again.
Most likely, gold will return to around 1916.60.
On the weekly time frame, the main trend is up. If gold breaks through the body of the weekly candlestick support, then the next trading week we fall down. But, if XAU/USD throws a rejection spike, the market may turn around and rush for a correction.
Our recommendation: if you are thinking about selling gold, then wait for the body to break through the weekly candle at 1916.60.

On the daily time frame, in addition to the main trend, there is a secondary one. It broke and the most important thing is that XAU/USD does not break the global trend. When it breaks through, the correction will turn into a new uptrend.

Thesis:
- After working out the first take, the market began to correct;
- Gold rolled back and is trying to go up;
- The currency pair will return to 1916.60.
Economic calendar
The price of gold is still trading on the defensive this Friday, as traders remain on the sidelines ahead of the important US nonfarm payrolls report. As FXStreet's Dhwani Mehta points out, the XAU/USD bearish potential seems to be intact.
The US economy likely added 391,000 jobs in April, up from 431,000 previously created. A stronger-than-expected dollar report is needed for the dollar bulls to continue rebounding on Thursday, leading the price of gold down to the 200-day moving average (DMA) at $1,835. However, the dismal data could justify a less hawkish stance by the Fed, prompting the greenback to resume its correction from multi-year highs, benefiting the price of gold.
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2022-05-09 07:53:47 ХAU/USD ОБЗОР
На рынке сейчас валютная пара XAU/USD составляет 1885.00.

На месячном тайм-фрейме перспективы на понижение пока что сохраняются. Сигнала на повышение не видно.
После отработки первого тейка рынок начал корректироваться, приподнявшись, он откатился и пытается опять пойти на повышение.
Скорее всего золото вернется к отметке 1916.60.
На недельном тайм-фрейме главный тренд восходящий. Если золото пробивает телом недельной свечи поддержку, то на следующей торговой недели падаем вниз. Но, если XAU/USD бросит отвергающий шип, рынок может развернуться и устремиться на коррекцию.
Наша рекомендация: если вы думаете о продаже золота, то дождитесь пробития телом недельной свечи уровня 1916.60.

На дневном тайм-фрейме, кроме главного тренда, есть второстепенный. Он сломался и самое главное, чтобы XAU/USD не сломало глобальную тенденцию. При ее пробитии коррекция превратится в новый восходящий тренд. Открыть/Комментировать

2022-05-09 07:53:02 GBP/USD WEEKLY REVIEW 09.05-13.05.2022

At the time of publication of the review, the GBP/USD currency pair is at 1.23710.
Market the day before
GBP/USD recovered moderately after falling to its weakest level in almost two years below 1.2300 on Friday morning. The pair, however, is unlikely to achieve a sustainable rebound in the near term following the BoE's recession warning on Thursday.

The currency pair updated the nearest minimum and completed the take at around 1.23500.
We remind you that as soon as the currency pair breaks through the main uptrend with the body of the monthly candle, we forget about buying. The pound will start moving towards the target level at 1.21700. The market will return to where it started its bull run.

We expect
We expect the market to correct a little, then we start further down to 1.21700 and from there we can plan reversals and uptrends with a trend change to 1.27600.

Thesis
- The pound will slightly correct;
- We start further down to the level of 1.21700;
- Hikes to increase with a change in trend to around 1.27600.

Economic calendar
Thursday
09:00 GDP (YoY) (Q1) 9.0% 6.6%
09:00 GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 1.0% 1.3%
09:00 GDP (MoM) 0.1%
09:00 Manufacturing output (MoM) (Mar) -0.5% -0.4%
09:00 Change in monthly GDP 3m/3m 1.0%
Sentiment around the pound remains undermined after the Bank of England predicted a recession in the UK economy in the 4th quarter of 2022, while raising its key rate by 25 basis points to 1% on Super Thursday.
On the other hand, despite the contraction in US GDP in the first quarter, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell remains confident about the economy and the labor market, suggesting a 50 basis point rate hike at the next two policy meetings.
The divergence of the Fed and the Bank of England on monetary policy, as well as the economic outlook, is likely to keep the bearish potential of the GBP/USD pair. Now the focus is shifting to US NFP data and speeches by politicians from the Fed and the Bank of England about new incentives for trading on the spot.
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2022-05-09 07:52:32 GBP/USD ОБЗОР
На рынке сейчас валютная пара GBP/USD составляет 1.23710.

Валютная пара обновила ближайший минимум и отработала тейк на отметке 1.23500.
Напоминаем, что как только валютная пара телом месячной свечи пробьет главный восходящий тренд, то про покупки забываем. Фунт начнет стремиться к целевому уровню на отметке 1.21700. Рынок вернется туда, где начинал свой поход на повышение.

Ожидаем, что рынок немного скорректируется, затем стартуем дальше на понижение к отметке 1.21700 и уже оттуда можем планировать развороты и походы на повышение со сменой тренда к отметке 1.27600. Открыть/Комментировать

2022-05-09 07:51:58 EUR/USD WEEKLY REVIEW 09.05-13.05.2022

At the time of publication of the review, the EUR/USD currency pair is 1.05900.
Market the day before
The EUR/USD rebounded after falling below 1.0500 earlier on Friday. However, in the current risk-averse market environment, the pair is likely to find it difficult to make a convincing recovery.
On the monthly time frame, the euro has broken through the support trend line, and has worked out the nearest targets.
On Wednesday, the euro rushed to rise and rose by 130 points, while the dollar fell.
All volatility worked out in 5-7 days.
We expect
After Thursday's takeoff, the currency pair pulled back and formed a strong global support level.
We expect that USD will go down on the news, and EUR will grow.
On H4, the market tested the nearest support level, the currency pair was not allowed to rush down.
We expect the body to break through the nearest resistance level at H4 at 1.06420 and then we expect growth.
The “Triangle” has broken down and if there is a break through of resistance, then a “Double Bottom” will form.
After breaking through the resistance, the euro will go up and you can trade to the level of 1.07280.
Due to the contradiction in the signals that the indicators give, as well as the decrease in volatility, the most correct decision now is to focus on the nearest significant levels of support and resistance.

The 'bullish' scenario of developments will be 'activated' in case of a breakdown of the resistance level 1.0550, which may open the way to the levels 1.0615, 1.0649 and 1.0678.

The 'bearish' scenario will begin to materialize in case of a breakdown of the strong support level of 1.0492, after which the quotes may fall to the levels of 1.0410, 1.0390 and 1.03395.
Thesis:
- USD will go down, and EUR will grow;
- Breaking through the nearest resistance level at 1.06420;
- The euro will start a hike to increase to around 1.07280.

Economic calendar:
Tuesday
12:00 ZEW economic sentiment index in Germany (May) 42.5 41.0
The indicator does not change much, so we do not expect a strong reaction.

The UK economy could slide into recession in 2022 with rising energy prices pushing inflation above 10%.
The warning reminded investors that the Fed can afford to continue to tighten policy at a more aggressive pace than the Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB), which will have to deal with a slowdown in activity amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The US economic calendar will feature the April employment report. Non-agricultural employment is expected to rise by 391,000 in April after increasing by 431,000 in March. Investors, however, are likely to pay close attention to wage inflation data. Average hourly wages are projected to rise by 5.5% year on year. Stronger-than-expected data could provide additional momentum for the dollar ahead of the weekend and vice versa.
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